# Why are stumpage prices falling right now? $404/MBF rolling 3-month state sawtimber average through Aug 2026. The average has risen 2 straight months. _Data through Aug 2026 · source last checked Aug 26, 2026 · page revised Aug 26, 2026_ > The rolling 3-month state sawtimber price has risen 2 consecutive months, up $46.91/MBF (+13.2%) since Jun 2026. Green sawtimber ran a median +26% over its appraised minimum across the trailing 3 months. Completed sawtimber sales averaged 2.5 bidders over the same stretch. 74 public timber sales completed in the trailing 3 months, 2 of them drawing no bid. Stumpage prices are not falling right now. The rolling state sawtimber average has risen for 2 straight months and is up $46.91/MBF (+13.2%) since Jun 2026. For the current picture, see [Why are stumpage prices rising right now?](/why/stumpage-prices-rising). ## The table tracks the rolling 3-month volume-weighted green sawtimber price across state sales quoted in $/MBF. Federal $/CCF and per-ton sales are never blended in. | Period | Current | Prior | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Month over month | $404/MBF | $374/MBF | +7.9% | | Year over year | $404/MBF | $542/MBF | -25.6% | | vs 3-yr median | $404/MBF | $542/MBF | -25.6% | ## What makes stumpage prices fall Stumpage prices fall when the competition thins out. Every auction needs at least two serious bidders to run a premium; the moment mills stop needing wood badly, the same tracts sell at or near their appraised minimums, and the average follows. Weak lumber markets are the usual leader. When lumber prices sag, on soft housing starts or swollen mill inventories, the margin a mill can bid out of shrinks, and the pullback reaches the auction floor within a few sale cycles. A mill that cannot sell boards profitably does not chase standing timber. Ample log supply does the rest. Plentiful private timber, good logging weather, or a salvage program flush with volume all let mills fill decks without competing at public auction; fewer bidders per sale shows up first in the bid-intensity reads on the [region pages](/region), then in the premiums. Collapsing premiums are the early warning. When the median premium over minimum on the [timber board](/board/recent-results) compresses toward zero, buyers are no longer outbidding each other even where they still buy, and the volume-weighted average usually follows it down. No-bids are the loud version. A tract that draws no bid at all means no mill could make its minimum work, and a thickening [no-bid tracker](/nobid/tracker) is the clearest public sign of a buyers' market; agencies typically re-offer those tracts later, sometimes at lower minimums. Mix can exaggerate the slide. A quiet month whose only sales are lower-value species or salvage-adjacent tracts prints a weak average even in a stable market, which is why this page's call runs on a rolling 3-month volume-weighted average of the [monthly results](/results) rather than any single month. The [rising twin of this page](/why/stumpage-prices-rising) covers the same factors running the other way. ## About this data - Source: Washington DNR, Oregon Department of Forestry, Idaho Department of Lands, Montana DNRC, US Forest Service Region 6 and BLM Western Oregon timber auctions - Series: Green sawtimber, rolling 3-month volume-weighted price, state sales quoted in $/MBF - Basis: Stumpage; $/MBF only — federal $/CCF and per-ton sales never blended - Geography: The Pacific Northwest - Unit: $/MBF - Calculation period: Rolling 3 months of completed sales - Last observation: Aug 2026 - Update frequency: Event-based; updated as results post --- Cite: Pacific Northwest state green sawtimber averaged Not the current direction on the rolling 3-month volume-weighted read as of Aug 2026 (Stumpage). Stumpage. https://stumpage.news/why/stumpage-prices-falling Canonical URL: https://stumpage.news/why/stumpage-prices-falling